There are tons of reasons but I'd like to talk about two that I think cover a lot of ground.
Most traders seem to be very short term "swing" or intra-day traders looking to pick up a few pips and move on. What makes this do difficult is that trying to accurately predict the little 20-30 pip blips and bleeps over and over again on a consistent basis with a long term profit is something
I consider to be nearly impossible for the vast majority of traders to do. You'll have some winning and losing streaks but, overall, if you manage to even keep your head barely above water you're probably way ahead of the game.
Most of these very short term traders rely on the technical indicators to set up their trades. Many have "backtested" a system, but I think backtesting is a huge waste of time. To really test a system you need to back your charts up as far as they'll go then slowly move things forward, entering and exiting trades as you go. And if you really want to have a good test, start with $100 and burn it if you lose it. Now do some more testing the same way.
Most trading "systems' are variations of MA crossover systems. Trade "when the little hand is on the 2 and the big hand is on the...". Yes in a long term trend they look OK, but see the above then tell me if they really work. They can't tell you when profits are maxed and they can't keep you out of choppy markets, which is when you'll be giving back all the profits made when you were lucky enough to catch a trend.
Very few traders are long term and there are some very good reasons why. Longer term trading requires a very good knowledge of fundamentals and economics. It takes time to digest all this and most traders probably find it very boring and difficult to follow but, what really makes this type of trading so difficult is that in order to stay in these trades you'll need to be able to ride out the inevitable ups and downs that occur as a trend progresses. There's much less "action" here because longer term trends don't get set up every day (or even every week). These kinds of trades don't appeal to the gamblers.
All this being said, I really believe the long term trader has a much better chance of being profitable. I'll explain this by setting up a few bets on the NY Yankees.
Everyone knows the Yankees are a very good team. Does that mean they'll win the world series every year? No, but here's my long term bet:
I'm gonna bet that the Yankees are gonna win more games then they'll lose this year. That's it. I only have one bet the whole season. Boring, really. What's worse is that they've lost 7 out of their last 8 and they're below .500 for the year so far. I'm losing pips and I gotta stay in and ride it out. Not easy.
Here's the Yankee bet that's like trading those short term blips and bleeps:
I'm gonna bet the Yankees score in this inning. Hey, they scored in the 2 previous innings. Alex Rodriguez is coming up, the short term MA of runs scored by the Yankees has crossed over the long term MA of runs given up by the opposing pitcher...
There's a lot more fun in betting this way. You're gonna have 8-9 bets/day for 162 days. Plenty of action, as long as your money holds out.
I guess i'm a boring trader. Hope I didn't bore you too much.
If longer term trading interests you and you want some help with fundamental analysis, I have several other threads that will help. Just do a search.
A Mechanical System That Really Works or Just a Scam ? Apart from the launch of the Fap Turbo robot, the launch of Forex Avenger was probably the biggest event of the 2008 year in the Forex trading community. The creator of Forex Avenger promised to bring us a trading system that is entirely mechanical with step-by-step, easy to follow instructions and an average success rate of 75% or higher. To find out if all the hype about this system was true, I decided to buy the product and test it myself.
Forex Avenger Did Forex Avenger deliver on its promises? It certainly did..see my full review below for more information. A mechanical system that consistently makes profitable trades is what most Forex traders are after. It is a known fact that even a system with a consistent success rate of 50% can make you money if you use good money management techniques to minimize losses and maximize profits. However, purely mechanical systems that make consistent profits are surprisingly scarce and finding a trader who makes a living from such a system is even harder, but Dave Curran is one such trader and Forex Avenger is the exact system that he uses to make a full time living trading the Forex markets. Forex Avenger is a mechanical Forex trading system that uses easy to follow technical indicators to determine when to buy or sell a currency pair. The system requires absolutely no discretion and the entry/exit rules are completely mechanical, so it is virtually impossible to make a mistake. Click Here to Visit the Forex Avenger Homepage
What does Forex Avenger Consist Of? Firstly, it is important to note that Forex Avenger is not an automated trading system like Fap Turbo, it is a manual trading system that can be used with any broker, on any trading platform. When you purchase the Forex Avenger product you immediately gain access to the full system, which consists of an 87 page ebook in pdf format, various videos and a number of bonusses. The ebook contains a detailed introduction to Forex trading of around 40 pages, which can be skipped by experienced traders. The core of the Forex Avenger system are made up by the following components:
The Forex Avenger System The main Forex Avenger system trades the EURUSD currency pair on the 1Hour timeframe. The system uses 2 standard indicators to determine entry signals and there are 1-2 trading opportunities every day. Exact profit targets and stop loss values are defined, so once a trade is entered you are done with it until either the stop loss of profit target is hit. One advantage of this system is the fact that you can see when there won’t be a trading opportunity in the near future, so you don’t have to monitor the hourly charts constantly. This system only requires you to look at the charts once every hour, at the close of the hourly candle. The Set ‘n Sleep System The Set ‘n Sleep system uses the same indicators as the main Forex Avenger system, but on the daily charts and a slightly different entry strategy is used. Trading opportunities don’t come often with this system, but all the major currency pairs can be traded, which should present around 2-3 trading opportunities per week. While the main Forex Avenger system requires some attention during the day, the Set ‘n Sleep system is ideal for the part time trader that can only trade after hours. This system only requires you to look at the charts once a day. Training Videos The videos included with the Forex Avenger packages are very detailed and really teaches you everything you need to know about the system. The video series starts with a good introduction where Dave Curran talks a bit about his history as a trader and how the Forex Avenger system was invented. Each of the systems above are then explained in great detail and various sample trades are performed. If you prefer watching video over reading an ebook, then the videos will teach you all you need to know about the system. Click Here to Visit the Forex Avenger Homepage
Is Forex Avenger Profitable? I have spent a lot of time backtesting this system against historical data and so far I am VERY impressed by the results. Both of the trading systems inside Forex Avenger are completely mechanical and incredibly accurate. The success rate is consistently around 75% and I can easily see how it is possible to achieve the kind of profits that are advertised. I am very excited about forward testing this system and hope to start posting results soon. Check the Forex Avenger category of this blog for my latest feedback.
Conclusions and Recommendations Once you start watching the Forex Avenger videos you quickly realize that Dave Curran is very passionate and proud of his system and that this is not just another hyped up scam that doesn’t deliver. This system caters for both the day trader as well as the part time trader and if what you are looking for is a simple, mechanical trading system that makes consistent profits under any market conditions, then Forex Avenger should be one of the top systems on your list to investigate. Click Here to Visit the Forex Avenger Homepage
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